Reflective practice

When I was a trainee teacher I developed a habit of reflective practice which has stayed with me, even though the classroom teaching career has not. I ruthlessly apply preparation, evaluation and analysis to my online poker game and am slowly and gradually reaping the rewards. The biggest benefit to my game has been a reduction in the severity and length of tilt and a more realistic perspective on my results. I have identified the features of my A,B and C games and in evaluation this helps me to be objective about how well I have played and how lucky I am getting in each session. I am in essence using a system called 'the adult learning model' to develop my repertoire of moves whilst also eliminating mistakes. This method should hopefully see me inch forward in profitability by winning more when ahead and losing less when behind.  

Nobody understands percentages like a poker player

33% of people will be affected by cancer in their lifetime.

I have the early stages of bowel cancer and a doctor recently told me there was a 50% chance he could remove my lump all in one go. Another doctor told me with 100% confidence that my lump was benign and nothing to worry about.  Yet another doctor told me my lump had developed into full blown cancer approximately 40-45% of the way. As things stand I don't know my chances of survival and I don't want to morbidly look them up on medical websites, but as a poker player I think I have a greater understanding of the psychological effect of quoting percentage chances than the medical professionals I have seen recently.

When I was quoted 50% to remove my lump I instantly thought to myself "Shit I'm in a coin flip here." My pocket pair is facing two overcards or vice-versa if you are a glass half empty kind of a guy. As any tournament poker player knows a coinflip is a precarious position to be in. On the one hand you can double up and sail through or on the other hand it could be curtains. Even though the percentage chance is an appreciable 50% you can have 5-10 flips go against you in a row fairly easily. In other words I did not feel very reassured to know the chances were 50/50 so why quote it to me? Was I supposed to nod sagely, take a coin from my pocket and toss it in the air before laying back and saying "O.k doc cut me, I'll take those odds?"

My point is that it is kind of irresponsible to quote percentage chances to vulnerable patients when they are not really in a position to do anything with the data. The other quote I received regarding the 40% cancer growth really got me tilted in hospital when I was over 24 hours into a fast and 12 hours from my last drink of water. The only thing the statistically insensitive surgeon achieved was to make me think "Oh bollocks I never win 60-40 all-ins" I do not wish to sound flippant about what is my health and future on the line but I am used to routinely processing and being subject to percentage chances at the poker table, and I know that for 60% to feel like a genuine advantage you have to play it out over and over hundreds of times. I only have one life and if my lump is too evolved and has taken over my body, then what use was telling me minutes before my surgery? If I had been approached weeks or even days before surgery and had the numbers explained then I might have found it hard to swallow, but at least I could have taken comfort in my small advantage and used this information to explain to my loved ones what the implications are.

Continuation bets: through the looking glass

Continuation bets or cbets are when you raise preflop and proceed to bet the flops that you miss. You are expecting your opponent to fold even though they have some degree of equity in the pot.  The extent to which your bet is a bluff will be unknown and often you are betting a slightly better unpaired hand into a worse unpaired hand that will fold. Continuation bets can only work if you are checked to, or you are out of position and bet first on the flop and should rarely be done with more than two players to the flop.

I have been analysing my use of cbets to try and stop over-thinking in game flow, and to stop betting in bad spots or missing potential continuation bets.

I ran some trial flops and discovered that for 3 broad categories of flops the following seems to occur:

Approx 40% of the time the board is dry eg Kh7c3d
Approx 40% of the time the board is slightly connected eg 4c7h8h
Approx 20% of the time the board is very connected eg 9hJcQc

It is generally recommended by many sources that a solid aggressive poker player continuation bets with a decent frequency such as 60-70%. Against thinking players some experts can get away with higher if they are (perceived as) especially tight preflop and also have the balls to play maniacal post flop.

Based on the success/failure rate of my cbets vs flop types up to this point I have developed a theory. If I cbet dry flops 100% of the time, slightly wet flops approx 50% of the time and very connected/sopping wet flops very rarely then I will get the greatest number of folds on the flop for my bets, whilst maintaining an optimal percentage of cbets overall.

I am using the Dan Harrington clock face randomizing method to decide ahead of the flop if I will bet (a type 2 board) or not so can use all my thinking power for other decisions when the flop comes down, such as planning what sort of turn cards to bet again on..

The second level conclusion I have reached is that I can raise more trashy hands from late position without having to panic and improvise spur of the moment betting lines from the flop onwards. I already know what I am going to do on the flop and the success or failure of my bet has nothing to do with my cards and everything to do with the texture of the flop. I think;)

Multitabling

I am starting to regularly play two tables at once, although on my site there is not always enough fishy tables to sustain this for long. All the regular players move tables constantly to try and get position on the fish and it is hard work to keep a table going. I think the 5/10 players must descend to 4nl and 2nl when their tables go quiet.

I am finding multitasking o.k but I am occasionally timing out on one table, usually just after a big decision on one table when my mind replays a hand to look for mistakes. This is a mental game mistake I am working on and I am now using a jotter to note key hands to come back to later rather than replay them in my mind there and then.

I enjoy having lots of button clicking and thinking to do at the same time and two tabling has helped to reveal consistent errors in my game such as continuation-betting the wrong types of flops into the wrong types of players. I am also limping the small blind too often/calling the big blind so as to make open folding a better proposition long term with any two cards in the blinds! I suspect that in the long term playing the blinds correctly is the key to full ring success becuase you always lose from the blinds and you can maximize your gains elsewhere by minimising your inevitable losses.
 
I now have a system of game evaluation that means I can constantly target my weaknesses and seek to drive donkey plays out of my game. I have decided to only move up in stakes when I am CRUSHING my limit and not when I am on the cusp, as I did once before and got insta-slapped back down! I am playing with greatly reduced tilt problems now, and have made great progress using Jared Tendler's methods. I am also on the search for the best music to fuel a poker game and I generally balance my mood with heavy tunes when I am tired and mellow post rock when I am too amped. Gotta take it up a notch whilst taking it down a notch sometimes;)

Mental Game Fish

I am reading Jared Tendler's book 'The Mental Game Of Poker' and have quickly realised I suffer from many of the mental defects Jared claims make you a mental game fish, even though I am not a massive fish in strategy terms (except for problem #2 below). Here are the first five things I could think of out a massive list I made, that hinder my game and give me problems:

1. Changing proven winning strategy to try and counteract run-bad
2. Trying to win every hand
3. Thinking that certain cards are 'bound to come'
4. Schooling other players
5. Feeling frustrated when bad players win more
   
   
    I am using pre game preparation and post game evaluation to try and combat these problems the Tendler way, along with regular hand analysis. The work is similar to cognitive behavioural therapy and it feels good to be proactive and working on aspects of the game that I may be able to apply elsewhere too. My long term aim is to move up in cash game stakes so I have stopped playing heads up and multitable donkaments for the time being.

June home game match report

We could only arrange 4 players for last night's home game but decided to go ahead and combine a match with watching European cup football in the background. The home game line up has gone through a lot of changes of late and a recent injection of youth has made our tournaments well attended and increasingly tough to beat. Given the low turn out and the fact that we would all have half an eye on the football, we decided to play a microstakes cash game which would remove time pressure on the blinds.

The Conge and King_Tubby mixed it up early on as KT was in Conge's big blind and not in a mood to roll over. Tubby played like Rooney on the comeback trail: loads of energy at the start, taking an early lead and mixing it up in a lot of plays. The Conge took on the role of Joe Hart: he was playing a cocky game, making dramatic moves when it was called for and bossing the rest of us around. King Tubby took down a fairly large early pot holding KK vs Pokerhontasz' AQ on a Qxxxx board and another highlight was me folding TP (with no kicker) on an AKXX board to Conge's huge turn bet and then tilting afterwards because I was likely bluffed off the winner.

On the whole I thought I played like Steve Gerrard: getting involved in the action when called for and staying predictably solid on set pieces, but also looking a bit old and tired. I snuck through a few standard raises and c-bets from the button but as luck would have it when I hit they folded and when I missed they called it down. King_Tubby's run of good cards ended after a while but that did not stop him from trying to force the action and at one stage it looked like he would run out of steam and not make the full 90 minutes. Pokerhontasz took on the role of James Milner, playing a defensive game but occasionally moving forward only to make a few near misses. In one hand Pokerhontasz rivered trip Queens holding KQ on a xxxQQ board only to lose to Conge's rivered flush which she managed to shrug off fairly swiftly, remaining composed for the TV cameras.

By the end of the match we were all dog tired and with stacks roughly back to where they started we decided to call it a night. King Tubby was the overall winner with about 20 big blinds and I made about 15bb, which demonstrates how close the game was. Our seating arrangement and reduced player pool meant that the money ultimately passed around the table full circle: from Conge to KingTubby in a series of small bluffs which got called down; from KingTubby to Pokerhontasz in a series of big hand match ups; from Pokerhontasz back to The Conge in an assortment of coolers and tight folds and, then from Conge to me because I called down a couple of Conge's big bluffs after he stung me the first time! In a cash game I think you need fresh injections of players from time to time to boost the game and also a few more than 4 players means more good hands turn up more often to create interesting pots. We did the best with what we had and it was nice to have a change of pace, but at the end of the day it's the team with the most goals big blinds that is the winner so well done King Tubby.

Away game report

Our most recent home game took place at King Tubby's house and he kindly laid on a smorgasbord of excellent snacks and dips. Jennoi and her beau, 'TheHunter' descended on the fantastic buffet like 'a hobo on a ham and cheese' (Jesse May) after an afternoon in the pub. The Conge forgoed daytime drinking and turned up recharged and ready to rock.  Pokerhontasz and I were both properly knackered but still glad to be out the house for a change. Once we had finished admiring King Tubby's beautiful poker chip set a deep stack tournament 20min blind structure with flat payout was agreed. This would reward loose play in the early game and an aggressive shove strategy later on: something which would determine the fate of and eventually separate our two most active players: TheConge and TheHunter.

The first hand of the night produced quad tens when TheHunter turned a set and rivered the nuts on an Axx1010 board and this set the tone for his becoming table captain early game. His nemesis Conge made a set of 5s twice and they sparred frequently as TheHunter refused to be bluffed off his hands. It was interesting to see a range of post flop bet sizes from TheConge, whose game has evolved from pot betting any untouched flop and I think TheHunter read too deeply into some of Conge's bets, and felt he had to pay off these suspicious-looking amounts. KingTubby took a dent to his chip stack when he was unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end of a tricky situation holding A2 Vs Conge's A6. On an AxK76 board King Tubby paid off 3 streets of value, convincing himself that the 3rd bet must be a bluff and he was therefore way ahead.  TheHunter continued to play 80% of hands, stabbing and taking down a lot of uncontested pots but ran into Pokerhontasz's underfull on an 5566x board, although I can't remember what he paid off her river bet with.

As the blinds began to increase each hand became more pivotal in determining who would make the gravy. Jennoi received a healthy boost to her stack on a Jc6d10h3cboard having flopped the nut flush draw and turned a pair of tens holding ATd. Pokerhontasz raised preflop out of position, but shut down from betting after her continuation bet was called. Jennoi continued to run good but nearly mucked the nuts on a KK2JQ board when TheHunter proudly showed K9 for top set. We had to point out to Jennoi that her pocket jacks were good and she bemusedly raked in all the chips! King Tubby went all in with Q8 on a KcQcAs10s board, only to be called in two spots: TheHunter chipped up significantly in this hand holding AJc which flopped top pair and rivered a straight to beat Tubby' Q8 and Jennoi's AK even though she flopped top two -pair. TheHunter quickly acquired the rest of my chips limp-calling JJ to my 10bb shove holding 55. Pokerhotasz was next out and Jennoi almost crippled TheConge sucking out with J9s to his KK all in as we went 3 handed.

TheConge affected a series of double ups with a series of all in bets that were called by The Hunter and held up to knock him out in 3rd place.  Jennoi gradually blinded out in a short space of time and Conge got it in with 8h2s vs Jennoi's QdTc and the 8h2s runner-runnered an improbable spade flush  on a 4s10s6cAs5s board to lock up the win. This completes a hat trick of wins for TheConge and deservedly so: he is not afraid to mix it up and play a range of hands early doors, and seems to make very thin value bets that still get paid off by worse. He knows when to put the pedal down and shove a wide range of hands, which helps to mitigate the effects of luck in the face of rising blinds. He has also had unspeakably bad luck in all-in pots in our home games so it is nice to see variance turn around and reward solid play.