To value bet or to bluff? That is the question

I have made two large post it notes, one says 'value bet' and one says 'bluff.' All bets in poker are one or the other and I have had some problems automatically betting without a good reason either way. My polarised post it notes are helping me to keep a check on my reasoning. I should also be able to isolate problem situations where it is not clear cut either way. For those who are not clear on the definitions a value bet is a bet which stands to be called by a range of worse hands eg you bet AK on a KJ8 board into a passive player who will chase draws and peel with middle or bottom pair eg JQ, J10, J9, A8 etc. Some of these hands will be superior hands, such as 88 but it is still a value bet when you make it, since there are fewer monster hands that are potentially ahead of you. A bluff is a bet that will fold out a range of better hands such as a donk lead on a A72 board with 64. Your hand is worthless and you do not want to go to the river only to be beaten by 9 high, so you bluff and your opponent will likely fold KQ,KJ,QJ,J10 etc to a bet thinking that you hold an ace in your hand. To make these bets you need to know your opponent's playing style and mood, since a tight aggressive player will pay off obvious value bets less often than a calling station and a tight-passive player will often fold to bluffs.  The psychology of betting in poker fascinates me and I think the reason why calling stations call with such a wide range of hands is that they fear being bullied and they are also eternally hopeful about the hands they might make if they get lucky 'this time'. This is why you should rarely bluff at nanostakes poker, because you are playing against people gambling for fun with very little money. They are happy to splash about their chips and so you should value bet the living daylights out of them every chance you get.

Turbo booster

Quick blind levels in microstakes heads up turbos creates an interesting set of challenges for the thinking/improving poker player. You are forced to observe frequencies of player actions within a few hands and make decisions based on these observations with the ticking time bomb of 3 minute blind levels. When you factor in the aggressiveness of many heads up players this makes some matches like a game of chicken. Your initial impressions of a player can be mistaken though, and if you do not keep reevaluating their playing style then you miss it when the swingometer moves in the other direction. This is not to say that players are varying their style to confuse and disorientate, they are simply not that sophisticated at my level of play.  What players are doing though is hitting or missing hands and any change in consistency is likely to reveal a hit rather than a miss since they will rarely have a strong hand.  My strategy is based around exploiting the following general player characteristics:

1. They call and slow play too much
2. They bet more with better hands and less with bluffs (unless they are an aggro donk)
3. They are impatient
4. They do not read the board to assess your hand strength, only their own
5. They are happy to get all the chips in early to feel the rush of the board running out yeah! Bizarrely though, they often tighten up when they have less than 7-8bb.

So to counter these general characteristics I try to:

1. Bet more for value and bluff less
2. Avoid overthinking their overbets, but stamp on min bets
3. If they think for a long time, they are likely in a marginal spot, not super strong or super weak (unless preflop with high blinds when you sometimes see a tank min raise or tank min 3bet with AA/KK which is surprisingly common amongst calling stations or weak tight players)
4. Look at the board and announce how well it fits their likely hands and compare their strength to mine
5. Try to avoid giving them the perfect reshove at around 15bb, but shove wide myself at -10bb

I am on a mission to remove fancy play from my game. It is a long road ahead but these simple rules should help to keep me in check. I have stopped playing full ring SNGs because everyone has tightened up way too much so the value vs the time it takes has vanished from them. I am too busy for cash games so heads up is the way to go with a busy lifestyle. A HU Turbo only takes 20mins max to complete. Current roi 6% and counting....