Continuation bets: through the looking glass

Continuation bets or cbets are when you raise preflop and proceed to bet the flops that you miss. You are expecting your opponent to fold even though they have some degree of equity in the pot.  The extent to which your bet is a bluff will be unknown and often you are betting a slightly better unpaired hand into a worse unpaired hand that will fold. Continuation bets can only work if you are checked to, or you are out of position and bet first on the flop and should rarely be done with more than two players to the flop.

I have been analysing my use of cbets to try and stop over-thinking in game flow, and to stop betting in bad spots or missing potential continuation bets.

I ran some trial flops and discovered that for 3 broad categories of flops the following seems to occur:

Approx 40% of the time the board is dry eg Kh7c3d
Approx 40% of the time the board is slightly connected eg 4c7h8h
Approx 20% of the time the board is very connected eg 9hJcQc

It is generally recommended by many sources that a solid aggressive poker player continuation bets with a decent frequency such as 60-70%. Against thinking players some experts can get away with higher if they are (perceived as) especially tight preflop and also have the balls to play maniacal post flop.

Based on the success/failure rate of my cbets vs flop types up to this point I have developed a theory. If I cbet dry flops 100% of the time, slightly wet flops approx 50% of the time and very connected/sopping wet flops very rarely then I will get the greatest number of folds on the flop for my bets, whilst maintaining an optimal percentage of cbets overall.

I am using the Dan Harrington clock face randomizing method to decide ahead of the flop if I will bet (a type 2 board) or not so can use all my thinking power for other decisions when the flop comes down, such as planning what sort of turn cards to bet again on..

The second level conclusion I have reached is that I can raise more trashy hands from late position without having to panic and improvise spur of the moment betting lines from the flop onwards. I already know what I am going to do on the flop and the success or failure of my bet has nothing to do with my cards and everything to do with the texture of the flop. I think;)

Multitabling

I am starting to regularly play two tables at once, although on my site there is not always enough fishy tables to sustain this for long. All the regular players move tables constantly to try and get position on the fish and it is hard work to keep a table going. I think the 5/10 players must descend to 4nl and 2nl when their tables go quiet.

I am finding multitasking o.k but I am occasionally timing out on one table, usually just after a big decision on one table when my mind replays a hand to look for mistakes. This is a mental game mistake I am working on and I am now using a jotter to note key hands to come back to later rather than replay them in my mind there and then.

I enjoy having lots of button clicking and thinking to do at the same time and two tabling has helped to reveal consistent errors in my game such as continuation-betting the wrong types of flops into the wrong types of players. I am also limping the small blind too often/calling the big blind so as to make open folding a better proposition long term with any two cards in the blinds! I suspect that in the long term playing the blinds correctly is the key to full ring success becuase you always lose from the blinds and you can maximize your gains elsewhere by minimising your inevitable losses.
 
I now have a system of game evaluation that means I can constantly target my weaknesses and seek to drive donkey plays out of my game. I have decided to only move up in stakes when I am CRUSHING my limit and not when I am on the cusp, as I did once before and got insta-slapped back down! I am playing with greatly reduced tilt problems now, and have made great progress using Jared Tendler's methods. I am also on the search for the best music to fuel a poker game and I generally balance my mood with heavy tunes when I am tired and mellow post rock when I am too amped. Gotta take it up a notch whilst taking it down a notch sometimes;)

Mental Game Fish

I am reading Jared Tendler's book 'The Mental Game Of Poker' and have quickly realised I suffer from many of the mental defects Jared claims make you a mental game fish, even though I am not a massive fish in strategy terms (except for problem #2 below). Here are the first five things I could think of out a massive list I made, that hinder my game and give me problems:

1. Changing proven winning strategy to try and counteract run-bad
2. Trying to win every hand
3. Thinking that certain cards are 'bound to come'
4. Schooling other players
5. Feeling frustrated when bad players win more
   
   
    I am using pre game preparation and post game evaluation to try and combat these problems the Tendler way, along with regular hand analysis. The work is similar to cognitive behavioural therapy and it feels good to be proactive and working on aspects of the game that I may be able to apply elsewhere too. My long term aim is to move up in cash game stakes so I have stopped playing heads up and multitable donkaments for the time being.