33% of people will be affected by cancer in their lifetime.
I have the early stages of bowel cancer and a doctor recently told me there was a 50% chance he could remove my lump all in one go. Another doctor told me with 100% confidence that my lump was benign and nothing to worry about. Yet another doctor told me my lump had developed into full blown cancer approximately 40-45% of the way. As things stand I don't know my chances of survival and I don't want to morbidly look them up on medical websites, but as a poker player I think I have a greater understanding of the psychological effect of quoting percentage chances than the medical professionals I have seen recently.
When I was quoted 50% to remove my lump I instantly thought to myself "Shit I'm in a coin flip here." My pocket pair is facing two overcards or vice-versa if you are a glass half empty kind of a guy. As any tournament poker player knows a coinflip is a precarious position to be in. On the one hand you can double up and sail through or on the other hand it could be curtains. Even though the percentage chance is an appreciable 50% you can have 5-10 flips go against you in a row fairly easily. In other words I did not feel very reassured to know the chances were 50/50 so why quote it to me? Was I supposed to nod sagely, take a coin from my pocket and toss it in the air before laying back and saying "O.k doc cut me, I'll take those odds?"
My point is that it is kind of irresponsible to quote percentage chances to vulnerable patients when they are not really in a position to do anything with the data. The other quote I received regarding the 40% cancer growth really got me tilted in hospital when I was over 24 hours into a fast and 12 hours from my last drink of water. The only thing the statistically insensitive surgeon achieved was to make me think "Oh bollocks I never win 60-40 all-ins" I do not wish to sound flippant about what is my health and future on the line but I am used to routinely processing and being subject to percentage chances at the poker table, and I know that for 60% to feel like a genuine advantage you have to play it out over and over hundreds of times. I only have one life and if my lump is too evolved and has taken over my body, then what use was telling me minutes before my surgery? If I had been approached weeks or even days before surgery and had the numbers explained then I might have found it hard to swallow, but at least I could have taken comfort in my small advantage and used this information to explain to my loved ones what the implications are.
