Every donk revealed
Monday 29 November 2010
Poker is...
Poker is Chris Moneymaker stone cold bluffing Sammy Farha, Worm bottom dealing, drunken home games with pizza and out of turn bets. Poker is missing your alarm clock and dreaming of flops, turns and rivers. Poker is replaying World Series Clips on youtube and sliding the all in button on your laptop. Poker is Phil Ivey staring into the soul of Paul Jackson and ripping his heart out. Poker is staying up late and listening to Jesse May cackle, giggle and whisper into the mic on Channel 4. Poker is strategic warfare, cold decks, insane heaters and 2 outers falling like rain on your day off. Poker is also a lesson in the value of concentration, keeping notes, watching your stats and doing loads of homework on opponents, odds, outs and strategy. Sometimes I feel like I am more of a fan of poker than an actual poker player and it is impossible to reconcile these two spheres.
Wednesday 10 November 2010
Props To Brokerstar@tagpoker.co.uk!
I just came out on top in a HU battle facing a 'no fold em holdem' player. Traditionally calling stations tilt the hell out of me and I end up barrelling my stack to them. However I had the voice of Brokerstar aka 'Paris TiltOn' guiding me Obi Wan Kenobi style. Brokerstar's guide on 'how to win vs players that never fold' is pure genius. Even though the strategies he implements are used in a much higher buy-in game than I play, the tactics he suggests transfer well to the micro slums. It sounds simple but by never cbetting or stabbing without the best hand or a tonne of outs, I managed to come out on top. In the words of Bill S Preston Esquire and Ted Theodore Logan "Listen to this dude he knows what he's talking about!" http://www.tagpoker.co.uk/
Sunday 7 November 2010
Why I love poker (and youtube)
Poker After Dark S06 ep39 cash game 100k part 3/4:
Eli Elezra and Tom Dwan play the most exciting, high level hand of poker which is absolutely steeped in meta game and hand reading finesse. I don't want to spoil it with any details except to say that that the moves leading up to the absurd conclusion, are totally informed by the action in the preceding episodes. The only problem with watching genius poker like this, is that there is no connection between this game and the online nlhe I play. I play a form of card roulette where I try to benefit from other people's mistakes with abc skills of preflop selection, value betting when ahead and folding when I am likely to be behind. I am not complaining that this is boring or anything like that, but I just found myself accidentally repping a 'slightly better than your airball' hand on the river in a micro stakes cash game. I was trying to push a passive player off his hand when I of course got called down with the better hand, ace high. Thanks Eli and Durrrr: you made me feel like I am a genius and I went and forgot the cardinal rule of micro stakes cash: Never bluff. Ever. Not even slightly. Not even when checked to twice on a dry board. Well, o.k, maybe then:)
Eli Elezra and Tom Dwan play the most exciting, high level hand of poker which is absolutely steeped in meta game and hand reading finesse. I don't want to spoil it with any details except to say that that the moves leading up to the absurd conclusion, are totally informed by the action in the preceding episodes. The only problem with watching genius poker like this, is that there is no connection between this game and the online nlhe I play. I play a form of card roulette where I try to benefit from other people's mistakes with abc skills of preflop selection, value betting when ahead and folding when I am likely to be behind. I am not complaining that this is boring or anything like that, but I just found myself accidentally repping a 'slightly better than your airball' hand on the river in a micro stakes cash game. I was trying to push a passive player off his hand when I of course got called down with the better hand, ace high. Thanks Eli and Durrrr: you made me feel like I am a genius and I went and forgot the cardinal rule of micro stakes cash: Never bluff. Ever. Not even slightly. Not even when checked to twice on a dry board. Well, o.k, maybe then:)
Wednesday 3 November 2010
Shoving vs stop and go on the bubble
This is situation where you are shorthanded on the bubble and likely near a point where the blinds will increase and turn the game into 2 card bingo. You are facing a raise by a player who is classic weak-tight. The kind of player who will wait the entire game for aces, win the minimum then quickly lose their mind and call a shove pre flop with 55. The stop and go move is suicide against a knowledgeable player or a maniac who has the call button hard wired to their frontal lobe.
WT player opens for min raise or thereabouts, and it folds around to you in the BB with an uber marginal A8-A10, 22-66. You can pretty much much bet your life the tight player has A9+, a pair, KJ, KQ etc.
The old me would have thought 'this tight player will no way call a shove on the bubble and my two cards don't really want to see a flop out of position I'll ship it and give him a difficult decision!'
Now here's the rub: weak tight players play fit or fold poker after the flop but are notorious for making daft calls on the bubble. A2s+, 44+, and KJ+ are probably all calling preflop and you are never folding out any hands that crush you, so the fold equity of your shove is negligable. He may also be getting desperate and more likely to call an all in, so you need to be careful not to shove and get called by a hand that is only slightly better than yours.
I'm sick of losing my pre flop races this way so the new me is experimenting with the stop and go: you call the raise and then see three more cards. As long as the flop is good and ragged you can shove the rest of your diminishing stack and drag down the pot. If you feel like being a totally readable mega donkey you can even large donk bet in this spot, leaving yourself with a comedically small stack behind. I prefer the ship option though as you need to maximise the potential to fold out low-medium pairs that still beat you. This move does take a degree of 'heart' so it is a lot easier to drop the hammer if you have at least some kind of funky backdoor draw as insurance.
I've quick crunched some numbers on this and I reckon if you can achieve a fold on the flop roughly 1:5 times then it makes the move a breakeven proposition in the long run against a tight 20% raise range preflop. Roughly 30% of the time they have a hand on the flop but occasionally you may fold out some pocket pairs, some weak kickers that occasioanlly paired the arse end of the board, aces with better kickers that missed. Even though the move is clearly made as a bluff and not for value WT players are far less likely to call once the flop hits the virtual felt. Even if they call you with 1010-KK then you still have roughly 14-15% suckout potential on a totally dry board that flopped under your kicker. You can't check the flop since this will give them the green light to experiment with their first ever cbet. Simply stop, and go!
WT player opens for min raise or thereabouts, and it folds around to you in the BB with an uber marginal A8-A10, 22-66. You can pretty much much bet your life the tight player has A9+, a pair, KJ, KQ etc.
The old me would have thought 'this tight player will no way call a shove on the bubble and my two cards don't really want to see a flop out of position I'll ship it and give him a difficult decision!'
Now here's the rub: weak tight players play fit or fold poker after the flop but are notorious for making daft calls on the bubble. A2s+, 44+, and KJ+ are probably all calling preflop and you are never folding out any hands that crush you, so the fold equity of your shove is negligable. He may also be getting desperate and more likely to call an all in, so you need to be careful not to shove and get called by a hand that is only slightly better than yours.
I'm sick of losing my pre flop races this way so the new me is experimenting with the stop and go: you call the raise and then see three more cards. As long as the flop is good and ragged you can shove the rest of your diminishing stack and drag down the pot. If you feel like being a totally readable mega donkey you can even large donk bet in this spot, leaving yourself with a comedically small stack behind. I prefer the ship option though as you need to maximise the potential to fold out low-medium pairs that still beat you. This move does take a degree of 'heart' so it is a lot easier to drop the hammer if you have at least some kind of funky backdoor draw as insurance.
I've quick crunched some numbers on this and I reckon if you can achieve a fold on the flop roughly 1:5 times then it makes the move a breakeven proposition in the long run against a tight 20% raise range preflop. Roughly 30% of the time they have a hand on the flop but occasionally you may fold out some pocket pairs, some weak kickers that occasioanlly paired the arse end of the board, aces with better kickers that missed. Even though the move is clearly made as a bluff and not for value WT players are far less likely to call once the flop hits the virtual felt. Even if they call you with 1010-KK then you still have roughly 14-15% suckout potential on a totally dry board that flopped under your kicker. You can't check the flop since this will give them the green light to experiment with their first ever cbet. Simply stop, and go!
Tuesday 2 November 2010
That crazy graph
The steep red line on my crazy graph represents money lost by a fellow donkey at micro stakes nlhe SNGs over 2500 games. I faced this particularly erratic aggrodonk on one occasion and was curious to know the long term profitability of his strategy. Having sharkscoped the poor chappie's results I was taken aback and it gave me serious food for thought. Here is a poker player with close to a grand to spare (assuming this is his first deposit) who has played and played and played and not got any better at the game. Forget variance, forget suck outs, this is a clear case of not knowing how to play poker and making no quantifiable impovement whatsoever, over a relatively small but nonetheless financially significant sample size. I began google searching for crazy sharkscope graphs and found a genius thread on two plus two forums full of them. Some players, sponsored pros even, absolutely stink at poker and will gladly reload, rebuy, redeposit and spew their cash into the poker economy. I am determined that in the long term I will maintain the wherewithall to avoid this kind of long term negative result. I have had harsh words with the gambler in me and sent him packing, off to waste his money on something frivolous. It is possible to play poker for 'fun' or 'the buzz' but its so much more of a buzz to remain in control and make good decisions that lead to success.
The continuation bet
O.K I should put up something genuinely useful on these blogs so I don't just come across as a complete ranter....
When I first learned about the cbet it was as if I had learned everything there is to know about post flop poker. My fellow donkeys were folding to my cbets and I was happy because that is all I wanted to know about post flop poker. The thought of a turn card was simply terrifying!
However under the current micro stakes climate the cbet should be used with a considerable degree of caution; rarely into more than one player, and virtually never on a wet flop. The reason for this is that with more than one player in the pot you will simply set off a chain reaction of calls as everyone chases their draws. The second reason for this is that more people know about the cbet, and I have noticed an increase in bluff and semi bluff raising in response to 1/2-2/3 pot bets on the flop. In the early stages of a sit and go you simply have to have to sigh and fold to these aggressive young pups, noting the player's tendency and using it to your advantage when the table gets short handed and more bluffy.
Calling stations will still be doing their bit for the micro stakes poker economy so just sit and wait until you hit at least TPGK, then value bet the living daylights out of them. Pot size or oversize bets get paid off by virtually ATC into the right players, wired overpairs can be a goldmine when you bet into a loose passive player.
So who can you cbet? Me! I'll always fold, thinking 'maybe they do have an overpair';)
When I first learned about the cbet it was as if I had learned everything there is to know about post flop poker. My fellow donkeys were folding to my cbets and I was happy because that is all I wanted to know about post flop poker. The thought of a turn card was simply terrifying!
However under the current micro stakes climate the cbet should be used with a considerable degree of caution; rarely into more than one player, and virtually never on a wet flop. The reason for this is that with more than one player in the pot you will simply set off a chain reaction of calls as everyone chases their draws. The second reason for this is that more people know about the cbet, and I have noticed an increase in bluff and semi bluff raising in response to 1/2-2/3 pot bets on the flop. In the early stages of a sit and go you simply have to have to sigh and fold to these aggressive young pups, noting the player's tendency and using it to your advantage when the table gets short handed and more bluffy.
Calling stations will still be doing their bit for the micro stakes poker economy so just sit and wait until you hit at least TPGK, then value bet the living daylights out of them. Pot size or oversize bets get paid off by virtually ATC into the right players, wired overpairs can be a goldmine when you bet into a loose passive player.
So who can you cbet? Me! I'll always fold, thinking 'maybe they do have an overpair';)
The value of patience in SNGs
I just came back from the dead right on on the bubble of a 10 man SNG as the donks either side of me waged war. I watched gobsmacked as my chance of making ITM went from ‘highly unlikely’ to 'ITM!' as one guy dusted off his entire stack with JJ on an Axx flop. His thought process must have been ‘JJ is a great hand, I’ll keep betting here.’ Donkeys do not see the flop, they just see the lovely carrots in front of them.
I have been keeping a diary of tilt rants lately and it has helped me to calm down and enjoy microstakes nlhe for the rollercoaster ride of chance that it is. It has also helped me to reflect on and improve my game. I have therefore decided to turn it into a blog so maybe it will provide some small amusement or educational value to other long suffering micro donkeys. The simple fact of the matter is that at the pitifully small stakes I play we are all donkeys. It is just that some of us are blessed with the ability to stop and question our donkey instincts. Some of us, sadly, are not.
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