Every bet tells a story

When you play a game of nlhe poker every bet has some significance in the game, which for weak players is a product of their personality, level and playing style.  A person's hopes, desires and moods often drive them forward in the game and when you can appreciate a player' s motivation, the story their bets tell will lead you to make better decisions about your hand. Deep down many people desire to exercise some control over the randomness of life and their game play reflects this. Have you ever seen someone get angry when throwing a dice and a number one comes up three times in a row? They want natural justice to put different numbers up each time, and they are probably simultaneously rooting for a six (depending on the game.) Poker is the same and people often bet because they want their hand to be the best, not because it is. I have been playing a bit of heads up no limit to see if I can adapt my water tight game and loosen up a bit in a forum where my edge might show a more consistent result. A key theme which is coming up already is that players do not want to let go of any ace, no matter how it connects with the board. They also seem to want a quick end to the game and make horror calls for a 30bb stack hoping to get lucky with QXs or whatever.

Converesley some people have such a strong desire to get paid off, no matter how small, on the river that they will bet the nuts curiously small in situations where they might as well stack off.  In a recent game I managed to flop trips and not lose all my stack to a rivered full house when an opponent did just this and raised only a little on the river. This particular move flabbergasted me: I flop trip 9s on a 99x board and check the flop figuring I am way ahead or way behind in a limped pot holding 94. This was a mistake which probably saved me as it happens, since my opponent holds 98. The donk checks behind on the button and I bet a queen turn and get called. The river is an 8 so I overbet, praying he has 10j or Qx and I get click raised (or thereabouts) so in my befuddled state I call. Donkeys rarely raise the river without the pure nuts and this was no ace mistake, since they would get AK in on the turn if they were too stubborn to fold missed overs. The only hand he could possibly do this with is another 9 or 88 and sure enough he tables the boat 99988. The psychology of this situation is interesting since there is no way he fears I have a better hand and 'bet to induce' is not a concept that figures to be in his game, this bet is a 'suck' bet so he can definitely show down the hand and suck me in for a few more bbs. The move is product of his desire to control and profit from randomness and he wants me to see it, so much so that it cost him around 10bb. As a thinking player I have to ask myself 'Should I have bet the flop?' 'Should 94 be in by bluff raise preflop repetoire since it is good to bluff your weakest hands as it puts more value hands in your value raise range?' Should I have bet more or less on the turn?' 'Should I have shoved the river?' As a non-thinking player my opponent probably took a screenshot of the full house to show his friends the awesome hand that got paid off by some idiot who was bluffing a lot.
;)

Strategy stuff: weak aces shorthanded, out of position

I have been trying to refine my shorthanded play to turn more of my 3rd place finishes into 1st place finishes. There comes a point in any sit and go when you have around 15-21 bb and have to tread very carefully, often there will be 3 or 4 people left. I have traditionally played very passively at this stage and whenever I get a sniff of a hand it is always out of position, in the blinds. The question I have asked myself is this: is it right to check or call a raise with a weak ace in the small blind when you could raise or fold? The further sub question is: am I wasting the value of the hand by not three betting these hands if I just call? It seems like the hand should have some instrinsic value but you postion is poor and makes post flop play difficult. I have ran some scenarios based on three handed play (where I often crash out by the way) when you are dealt a weak ace in the small blind and face a min or standard raise from an active player (who has correctly widened their pre flop raising range). It seems as though with the increased blinds three betting preflop is too risky as you cannot afford to play a fattened pot after the flop. You could stop and go shove post flop but this will be into two players and is way too risky to be a play with positive expectation, especially since better aces often call this move down. You are therefore in a call or fold situation when facing a raise. Post flop if you call a raise, most of the time you miss the flop (surprise surprise) and are stranded three handed because the big blind will have trailed behind for the good pot odds. Some of the time you will hit your ace and you need to commit and bet hard for value, assuming that your hand is best. This is he only way this play can be profitable in the long term. Most of the time you look at a dryish flop and may be tempted to donk lead/bluff, but this is never profitable enough and essentially ruins your chances of checking down to the river with the best hand, which will happen some of the time. It is important to play straightforwardly at this point to get the value from the hand when you hit and to avoid all other plays. Once in a blue moon you can pick off dodgy river bluffs and beat a bluffed king/queen high hand. All of these scenarios are based on calling no more than a min raise preflop. If the button opens for a standard raise it is important to suck it up and fold the hand preflop. The pot will become too big post flop (compared to your stack) if you call a 2.5x+ raise and the number of times you can proceed with value bets post flop will not make up for the pre flop losses in calling the raise in the long term. It hurts to make this play, but the best overall response is to ignore the pretty ace and raise wider on the button, stealing more blinds with some junk hands and all your high card combos. So to answer the two questions I put to myself: it is right to call a minraise with a weak ace, but not a standard raise, and the value of the hand is based solely on the ace.Your position negates the value of the hand so do not reraise preflop and trap yourself, wait for the button to turn up the heat.

Sit and go funk plus some strategy stuff

I have kind of lost my way with sit and go tournaments and strayed from the path of concentrating on them to build my bankroll/improve my play. I am a recreational player and I do not always have time to set aside 1.5 hours to play a full ring game.  I have been dabbling with limit cash, to try and improve my post flop hand reading skills, but that seems like a waste of time at the lower limits, since players are apt to play most hands, bluff frequently and overvalue the hands that they do make.  I am basically in a bit of a funk with nano stakes online poker so I have tried slightly higher stakes cash to get the buzz back.  Even though I am only rolled for the lowest limits the money has stopped meaning something to me and I am missing the live action since our home games have been on hold. I have also become isanely weak passive at certain points in tournaments, and sometimes in cash games, especially when facing players who never fold. If I limp another ace shorthanded I will have to resign my post as a tight-agressive Dan Harrington-wannabe!

Strategy bit:
On a more positive note I have made 2 important poker discoveries lately: the first is that cash game players who min bet flop and turn usually have missed overcards (even if they limped in) or a small pocket pair that missed the board. They will often call a reraise with all of these hands so you can raise for value with just about any made hand and best or bear best overcards, on any street.  If they bet heavy on the end you can fold anything below two pair, as this is never a bluff online. They are esentially betting the strength of their hand allowing you to play perfectly. I spotted a player who was doing this today, who was betting 2x (his version of the min bet) at any checked flop so I check raised AKo for value IP on a ragged low flop. This move bought me a freecard on the turn, then I spiked an ace on the end and was able to bet for value as he held on and called with his 3rd pair or whatever.

My second discovery is that in a sit and go if you have 30bb+ the optimal raise size is between 3 and 3.5BB to gain maximum value without offering the blinds too favourable pot odds or betting a silly mount that dimishes your stack. In other words any less is too easy for the blinds to call and mess with you, any more is costing you too much if you are correctly widening your range to blind steal at this point in the game. At $25/50 level this would be around $162. It has the added value of being a confusing amount, and when people are confused they make bad decisions;)