Continuation bets: through the looking glass

Continuation bets or cbets are when you raise preflop and proceed to bet the flops that you miss. You are expecting your opponent to fold even though they have some degree of equity in the pot.  The extent to which your bet is a bluff will be unknown and often you are betting a slightly better unpaired hand into a worse unpaired hand that will fold. Continuation bets can only work if you are checked to, or you are out of position and bet first on the flop and should rarely be done with more than two players to the flop.

I have been analysing my use of cbets to try and stop over-thinking in game flow, and to stop betting in bad spots or missing potential continuation bets.

I ran some trial flops and discovered that for 3 broad categories of flops the following seems to occur:

Approx 40% of the time the board is dry eg Kh7c3d
Approx 40% of the time the board is slightly connected eg 4c7h8h
Approx 20% of the time the board is very connected eg 9hJcQc

It is generally recommended by many sources that a solid aggressive poker player continuation bets with a decent frequency such as 60-70%. Against thinking players some experts can get away with higher if they are (perceived as) especially tight preflop and also have the balls to play maniacal post flop.

Based on the success/failure rate of my cbets vs flop types up to this point I have developed a theory. If I cbet dry flops 100% of the time, slightly wet flops approx 50% of the time and very connected/sopping wet flops very rarely then I will get the greatest number of folds on the flop for my bets, whilst maintaining an optimal percentage of cbets overall.

I am using the Dan Harrington clock face randomizing method to decide ahead of the flop if I will bet (a type 2 board) or not so can use all my thinking power for other decisions when the flop comes down, such as planning what sort of turn cards to bet again on..

The second level conclusion I have reached is that I can raise more trashy hands from late position without having to panic and improvise spur of the moment betting lines from the flop onwards. I already know what I am going to do on the flop and the success or failure of my bet has nothing to do with my cards and everything to do with the texture of the flop. I think;)