Every bet tells a story

When you play a game of nlhe poker every bet has some significance in the game, which for weak players is a product of their personality, level and playing style.  A person's hopes, desires and moods often drive them forward in the game and when you can appreciate a player' s motivation, the story their bets tell will lead you to make better decisions about your hand. Deep down many people desire to exercise some control over the randomness of life and their game play reflects this. Have you ever seen someone get angry when throwing a dice and a number one comes up three times in a row? They want natural justice to put different numbers up each time, and they are probably simultaneously rooting for a six (depending on the game.) Poker is the same and people often bet because they want their hand to be the best, not because it is. I have been playing a bit of heads up no limit to see if I can adapt my water tight game and loosen up a bit in a forum where my edge might show a more consistent result. A key theme which is coming up already is that players do not want to let go of any ace, no matter how it connects with the board. They also seem to want a quick end to the game and make horror calls for a 30bb stack hoping to get lucky with QXs or whatever.

Converesley some people have such a strong desire to get paid off, no matter how small, on the river that they will bet the nuts curiously small in situations where they might as well stack off.  In a recent game I managed to flop trips and not lose all my stack to a rivered full house when an opponent did just this and raised only a little on the river. This particular move flabbergasted me: I flop trip 9s on a 99x board and check the flop figuring I am way ahead or way behind in a limped pot holding 94. This was a mistake which probably saved me as it happens, since my opponent holds 98. The donk checks behind on the button and I bet a queen turn and get called. The river is an 8 so I overbet, praying he has 10j or Qx and I get click raised (or thereabouts) so in my befuddled state I call. Donkeys rarely raise the river without the pure nuts and this was no ace mistake, since they would get AK in on the turn if they were too stubborn to fold missed overs. The only hand he could possibly do this with is another 9 or 88 and sure enough he tables the boat 99988. The psychology of this situation is interesting since there is no way he fears I have a better hand and 'bet to induce' is not a concept that figures to be in his game, this bet is a 'suck' bet so he can definitely show down the hand and suck me in for a few more bbs. The move is product of his desire to control and profit from randomness and he wants me to see it, so much so that it cost him around 10bb. As a thinking player I have to ask myself 'Should I have bet the flop?' 'Should 94 be in by bluff raise preflop repetoire since it is good to bluff your weakest hands as it puts more value hands in your value raise range?' Should I have bet more or less on the turn?' 'Should I have shoved the river?' As a non-thinking player my opponent probably took a screenshot of the full house to show his friends the awesome hand that got paid off by some idiot who was bluffing a lot.
;)