Shoving vs stop and go on the bubble

This is situation where you are shorthanded on the bubble and likely near a point where the blinds will increase and turn the game into 2 card bingo. You are facing a raise by a player who is classic weak-tight. The kind of player who will wait the entire game for aces, win the minimum then quickly lose their mind and call a shove pre flop with 55. The stop and go move is suicide against a knowledgeable player or a maniac who has the call button hard wired to their frontal lobe.

WT player opens for min raise or thereabouts, and it folds around to you in the BB with an uber marginal A8-A10, 22-66. You can pretty much much bet your life the tight player has A9+, a pair, KJ, KQ etc.

The old me would have thought 'this tight player will no way call a shove on the bubble and my two cards don't really want to see a flop out of position I'll ship it and give him a difficult decision!'

Now here's the rub: weak tight players play fit or fold poker after the flop but are notorious for making daft calls on the bubble. A2s+, 44+, and KJ+ are probably all calling preflop and you are never folding out any hands that crush you, so the fold equity of your shove is negligable. He may also be getting desperate and more likely to call an all in, so you need to be careful not to shove and get called by a hand that is only slightly better than yours.

I'm sick of losing my pre flop races this way so the new me is experimenting with the stop and go: you call the raise and then see three more cards.  As long as the flop is good and ragged you can shove the rest of your diminishing stack and drag down the pot. If you feel like being a totally readable mega donkey you can even large donk bet in this spot, leaving yourself with a comedically small stack behind. I prefer the ship option though as you need to maximise the potential to fold out low-medium pairs that still beat you. This move does take a degree of 'heart' so it is a lot easier to drop the hammer if you have at least some kind of funky backdoor draw as insurance.

I've quick crunched some numbers on this and I reckon if you can achieve a fold on the flop roughly 1:5 times then it makes the move a breakeven proposition in the long run against a tight 20% raise range preflop. Roughly 30% of the time they have a hand on the flop but occasionally you may fold out some pocket pairs, some weak kickers that occasioanlly paired the arse end of the board, aces with better kickers that missed. Even though the move is clearly made as a bluff and not for value WT players are far less likely to call once the flop hits the virtual felt. Even if they call you with 1010-KK then you still have roughly 14-15% suckout potential on a totally dry board that flopped under your kicker. You can't check the flop since this will give them the green light to experiment with their first ever cbet. Simply stop, and go!